Mapping the Current Terrorist Terrain

Some know that the US government, specifically the State Department’s Bureau of Terrorism, maintains a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” list. I regularly consulted it when I was working as an analyst at US Special Operations Command, and a bit later when I taught a history of terrorism class to undergraduates. I last analyzed that list two years ago. I decided to do so again today after reading a perspicacious X post by the former Muslim @DanBurmawy, in which he pointed out–quite accurately–that modern Sunni Islam is far more violent than (Twelver) Shi`ism.

What follows is a breakdown of that FTO list, which was most recently updated very recently–July 8, 2025–when Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)/Jabhat al-Nusrah was delisted by the Trump Administration because that organization is now the de facto government of Syria. (For more detail on this topic, see this article.)

Major data points:

  • There are 78 total groups listed
  • 54 (69%) are Islamic
  • 47 of the 54 Muslim ones are Sunni, only 6 are Shi`i (five Twelver, one Fiver/Zaydi, in Yemen); one is Sufi
  • Next to Islam, the most prevalent ideology (if you can call it that) is Central/South American drug dealing with 9 groups (including Haitian gangs raises the level to 11)
  • Marxism comes in as the motivation for 8 organizations
  • Nationalism is behind 4 groups: two Irish, one Palestinian, one Sri Lankan
  • There’s one weird outlier: a Greek anarchist organzation.

As for location:

  • Largest contingent thereof is in Africa: 17, or 22%
  • South Asia (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh) is second with 13 groups (17%)
  • Mexico and the Palestinian territories are tied with 6 groups each.

Some of these groups haven’t been active for years. Revolutionary Struggle, the Greek anarchist one, hasn’t done anything since 2016. The Continuity Irish Republican Army hasn’t done much but quaff pints and bitch about the Brits for a decade. Asbat al-Ansar, formerly a bunch of Palestinian Sunnis in a Lebanese refugee camp, has been moribund for two decades. So these groups should probably be delisted as well, going the way of Aum Shinrikyo and Kahane Chai.

The ideological percentages changed considerably when the Trump Administration added eight Latin American drug cartels to the list shortly after taking office. Just two years ago, Muslim groups made up 81% of the list. So they can thank the cartels for that change.

Still, Islamic terrorism (not “Islamist”) is the most prevalent type on planet Earth.

He was probably Sunni, NOT Shi`i.

From Yemen With Hate?

Seventeen years ago I was writing posts over at my old site Mahdiwatch about an Iraqi Shi`i Mahdist movement centered around one Ahmad al-Yamani. I even interviewed him virtually at one point, although I have since lost the notes. As near as I could ascertain, al-Yamani was claiming to be a representative, or herald, of the coming 12th Imam al-Mahdi–sort of a John the Baptist figure, mutatis mutandis. He also said that his movement was peaceful, although even then the Iraqi government alleged his followers were actually violent.

His Ansar al-Mahdi had not been heard from much in the intervening years. But two days ago, Shafaq News (an Iraqi, pro-Kurdish site) reported that Ahmad bin Hasan al-Yamani, “a senior leader of the Al-Yamani Movement in Najaf province” had been arrested. He was described as “the chief strategist behind the group, which has called for attacks on top religious figures.” Al-Yamani “had evaded capture for years.” The article went on to state, confusingly, that al-Yamani had claimed BOTH to be the “deputy of the Mahdi” AND “the first of twelve Mahdis who follow the twelve Imams.”

In mainstream Twelver Shi`ism "al-Yamani" (the Yemeni) is indeed an eschatology-adjacent figure who comes from Yemen and prepares Muslims for the arrival of the actual Mahdi, the End Times leader who will, along with the returned Muslim Jesus, bring the whole world under the sway of Islam. (This bit in the article about 12 Mahdis makes no sense. In Twelver Shi`ism, the the 12 Imams are descendants of Muhammad through Ali’s line, the final one of which will be the eschatological Mahdi. There are not 12 Mahdis in this branch of Islam.)

Mahdism has been a hugely potent strain in the world’s second-largest religion for over a millennium, as I outlined in this article (and in several of my books). Men claiming to be the Mahdi are often a thorn in the side of established rulers–as al-Yamani appears to be for Baghdad. Perhaps his followers were violent; or the Iraqi government simply needed to put him away, as a political and religious irritant, and ginned up accounts of planned assassinations. But arresting such figures is usually insufficient to stop their movements, as the Mahdist imperative is deeply embedded in both Shi`i and Sunni Islam and serves as a powerful tool for combating perceived unjust rulers.

Imam Mahdi and Signs of the Appearance: one of my many Arabic books on this topic.

Taking True Measure of Terrorists and their Bloody Scourge

In recent years I’ve written 14 articles dealing with terrorism/counter-terrorism and national security strategy (in addition to an entire book on Middle Eastern counter-insurgency, as practiced by the Ottoman Empire and drawing lessons for US policy today):

      1. Must Our Leaders Always Lie about Islamic Terrorism,” 1.7.25
      2. A Jihadist by Any Other Name is Still a Killer,” 4.1.24
      3. A Jihad on the Term ‘Islamism,'” 10.23.23
      4. Biden’s National Intelligence Strategy: Using Power to Shape Truth,” 8.16.23
      5. A Tale of Two National Security Strategies,” 11.2.22
      6. The False Shadow of ‘Domestic Extremism,” 9.14.22
      7. Our Government: Gone to the Dogs?,” 4.11.22
      8. Why the Spying King’s Eyes were Fixed on Trump,” 2.28.22
      9. The Spies Who Hate Us,” 2.25.22
      10. Gaslighting the Gullible: the Latest Biden Administration Counter-Terrorism Plan,” 1.18.22
      11. Biden’s New Counter-Terrorism Strategy: A Lying, Dog-faced, Pony Soldier of a Document,” 6.30.21
      12. The Boulder Blunder: Ignoring Real Terror Sources to Chase Phantom Threats,” 3.25.21
      13. The Daft Bigotry of Woke Expectations about Islam,” 1.26.21
      14. White Terrorists v. the Sultans of Slaughter,” 8.13.19.

      This blogpost title comes from Henry VI Part 1, Act II, Scene 3.

      Get Your Geopolitical Fix at Route 66

      Here are my 66 articles about geopolitics (to include Islam/the Middle East, terrorism/counter-terrorism, foreign and military affairs) published at The Stream in the last few years (out of 153 total). Yes, I use cultural references, some tongue-in-cheek–but embedded in solid analysis of each topic.

      1. Must Our Leaders Always Lie about Islamic Terrorism,” 1.7.25
      2. Syria: How Did It Come to This?,” 12.12.24
      3. The Past, Present and Future Dangers of the Islamic Belief in the Mahdi,” 10.22.24
      4. The Three Religious Reasons Iranian Leadership Hates Israel,” 10.7.24
      5. Wars and Rumors of Wars,” 8.22.24
      6. Whose Turban is in Iran’s Ring, Post-Raisi?,” 5.24.24
      7. What Has Been Accomplished So Far in Space Force’s Five-Year Mission?,” 4.30.24
      8. America’s Military: The Spirit is Willing, but is the Flesh Too Weak…,” 4.23.24
      9. Make No Mistake: Israel is the Good Guy in the New Fight with Iran,” 4.14.24
      10. A Jihadist by Any Other Name is Still a Killer,” 4.1.24
      11. Murder Most Foul–But How Strange and Unnatural?” [on assassinations as policy], 2.18.24
      12. Who Really Wants Forever War in Ukraine…?,” 2.13.24
      13. What Game is Iran Playing?,” 1.22.24
      14. Seeing No Ecclesiastical Evil in Ukraine,” 11.2.23
      15. Israel’s Near and Far Enemies,” 11.17.23
      16. A Jihad on the Term ‘Islamism,'” 11.23.23
      17. Hamas, Iran’s Bloodthirsty Sock Puppet,” 10.9.23
      18. What Osama Wrought, 22 Years On,” 9.11.23
      19. Biden’s National Intelligence Strategy: Using Power to Shape Truth,” 8.16.23
      20. A Hungry Leviathan: Do We Really Want a More Poweful United Nations?,” 6.13.23
      21. The New Cold War: How to be In It to Win It,” 5.18.23
      22. Twenty Years after Invading Iraq–the Blind Still Lead in Washington,” 3.20.23
      23. Is Iran Bound by an Apocalypse Vow?,” 3.7.23
      24. Is ‘Ill News Always an Ill Guest?‘” [on Putin], 2.28.23
      25. Ukraine: Our Elites are Gaslighting Us to the Brink of Nuclear War,” 2.13.23
      26. Spy or Trial Balloons? China Draws on History to Test the West,” 2.6.23
      27. Ukraine: Fault Line or Potential Nuclear Conflict?,” 2.1.23
      28. A Tale of Two National Security Strategies” [Trump v. Biden], 11.2.22
      29. ‘Talkin’ World War II Blues’–Then and Now” [Ukraine v. Cuban Missile Crisis], 10.14.22
      30. The False Shadow of Domestic Extremism,” 9.14.22
      31. “The Armenian Genocide: Not the Only Legacy of the Ottoman Empire,” 5.2.22
      32. Our Government: Gone to the Dogs?” [on the “white supremacy terrorism” myth], 4.11.22
      33. Why the Spying King’s Eyes were Fixed on Trump” [on weaponizing the IC internally], 2.28.22
      34. The Spies Who Hate Us” [also on weaponizing the IC internally], 2.25.22
      35. Is Russia Playing Chess or Poker?,” 2.11.22
      36. We Didn’t Start Islam’s Fire. But Can We Put It Out?,” 2.6.22
      37. A Tin-Plated Dictator? Yes, but a Smart One We Can Do Business With,” 1.26.22
      38. Gaslighting the Gullible: The Latest Biden Administration Counter-terrorism Plan,” 1.18.22
      39. Sgt. Pepper and the Fall of the Soviet Union,” 12.27.21
      40. 9 A.D. and 9/11,” 9.10.21
      41. The Last State of Afghanistan: Worse than the First,” 8.30.21
      42. From Kabul to Kitchener,” 8.20.21
      43. From Khartoum to Kabul,” 8.16.21
      44. A Guide for the Misled–on Islam,” 7.11.21
      45. Biden’s New Counter-terrorism Strategy: A Lying, Dog-faced, Pony Soldier of a Document,” 6.30.21
      46. Iran’s New President: The Mahdi’s Mini-Me,” 6.24.21
      47. White Supremacists Our Most Dangerous Threat? A Whiter Shade of Tall Tale,” 5.4.21
      48. The Boulder Blunder: Ignorant Real Terror Sources to Chase Phantom Threats,” 3.25.21
      49. Goodbye to Trump’s Results-Oriented Middle East Policies,” 2.11.21
      50. The Daft Bigotry of Woke Expectations about Islam,” 1.26.21
      51. 9/11: 19 Years On,” 9.11.20
      52. From Eastern Arabia with Love: the UAE Makes Peace with Israel,” 8.19.20
      53. Mumbling toward Mecca,” 7.21.20.
      54. Who Can Blame Erdoğan for Going Back to the Future?,” 7.14.20
      55. How Middle-earth Can Help Us Deal with the Middle Kingdom,” 5.24.20
      56. Let’s Leave the Afghan Desert and Just Call It Peace,” 3.2.20
      57. Hotels v. Missiles: the Palestinians Chose…Poorly,” 2.7.20
      58. Radicalized by the Quran? A Former ISIS Wife Shares Her Story,” 1.11.20
      59. After al-Baghdadi,” 10.30.19
      60. Trump’s Kurdish Policy: Sympathy for the (Turkish) Devil?,” 10.14.19
      61. White Terrorists v. the Sultans of Slaughter,” 8.13.19
      62. Do Iran’s Leaders Want to Hotwire the Apocalypse?,” 7.8.19
      63. Contain Iran, Don’t Invade It,” 6.7.19
      64. Trump’s Policies toward the Islamic World are a Triumph,” 5.4.19
      65. ISIS is Not a Dead Parrot,” 4.8.19
      66. Mohammed’s Koran: the Book Amazon Won’t Let You Buy,” 3.20.29