Trump’s new MAGA: Making “Al-Muqaddimah” Germane Again!

Eight years ago I wrote “An Arab Muslim’s Prediction About the Fall of Western Civilization.” The gist of it was the following:

Western civilization has become spineless. This happens to all cultures, eventually—as described first, ironically, by the great 14th century North African Muslim historian Ibn Khaldun in his work The Muqaddimah. Ibn Khaldun, based on his study of ancient, Islamic and Christian history, ascertained a cyclical pattern of rise-and-fall among what he termed “dynasties” which, mutatis mutandis, is applicable to our culture as well. All of them go through three phases:

[1] The first is the one which establishes the society: “its members are used to privation and to sharing their glory with each other; they are brave….sharp and greatly feared. People submit to them.”

[2] Following that is the stage in which the society moves “from privation to luxury and plenty” and “the vigour of group feeling is broken…. People become used to lowliness and obedience. But many of the old virtues remain” and the people “live in hope that the conditions that existed in the first generation may come back, or they live under the illusion that those conditions still exist.”

[3] The final generation “has completely forgotten the period of…toughness, as if it had never existed…. because they are so much given to a life of prosperity and ease. They…are like women and children who need to be defended. Group feeling disappears completely….. When someone comes and demands something from them, they cannot repel him.”

The fourth phase, then, is the conquest of the civilization by another that is still in the robust, determined and, yes, dangerous phase.

Watching President Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress last night, and the Democrats’ reaction to it, reminded me of Ibn Khaldun’s typology. His first category describes traditional America, and what Trump+ MAGA hopes to resurrect; his second, establishment Republicans and “liberal” Democrats; the third, modern Leftists. The latter two now have far more in common with one another than either has with the “toxic masculinity” of the first–hence the hatred evinced by “Never Trump” Republicans and most Democrats towards those of us who hope and pray that Trump can indeed make America great again–which is the only way it will survive the Marxist and Muslim onslaught trying to destroy Western civilization in general, and this country in particular.

Taking True Measure of Terrorists and their Bloody Scourge

In recent years I’ve written 14 articles dealing with terrorism/counter-terrorism and national security strategy (in addition to an entire book on Middle Eastern counter-insurgency, as practiced by the Ottoman Empire and drawing lessons for US policy today):

      1. Must Our Leaders Always Lie about Islamic Terrorism,” 1.7.25
      2. A Jihadist by Any Other Name is Still a Killer,” 4.1.24
      3. A Jihad on the Term ‘Islamism,'” 10.23.23
      4. Biden’s National Intelligence Strategy: Using Power to Shape Truth,” 8.16.23
      5. A Tale of Two National Security Strategies,” 11.2.22
      6. The False Shadow of ‘Domestic Extremism,” 9.14.22
      7. Our Government: Gone to the Dogs?,” 4.11.22
      8. Why the Spying King’s Eyes were Fixed on Trump,” 2.28.22
      9. The Spies Who Hate Us,” 2.25.22
      10. Gaslighting the Gullible: the Latest Biden Administration Counter-Terrorism Plan,” 1.18.22
      11. Biden’s New Counter-Terrorism Strategy: A Lying, Dog-faced, Pony Soldier of a Document,” 6.30.21
      12. The Boulder Blunder: Ignoring Real Terror Sources to Chase Phantom Threats,” 3.25.21
      13. The Daft Bigotry of Woke Expectations about Islam,” 1.26.21
      14. White Terrorists v. the Sultans of Slaughter,” 8.13.19.

      This blogpost title comes from Henry VI Part 1, Act II, Scene 3.

      Get Your Geopolitical Fix at Route 66

      Here are my 66 articles about geopolitics (to include Islam/the Middle East, terrorism/counter-terrorism, foreign and military affairs) published at The Stream in the last few years (out of 153 total). Yes, I use cultural references, some tongue-in-cheek–but embedded in solid analysis of each topic.

      1. Must Our Leaders Always Lie about Islamic Terrorism,” 1.7.25
      2. Syria: How Did It Come to This?,” 12.12.24
      3. The Past, Present and Future Dangers of the Islamic Belief in the Mahdi,” 10.22.24
      4. The Three Religious Reasons Iranian Leadership Hates Israel,” 10.7.24
      5. Wars and Rumors of Wars,” 8.22.24
      6. Whose Turban is in Iran’s Ring, Post-Raisi?,” 5.24.24
      7. What Has Been Accomplished So Far in Space Force’s Five-Year Mission?,” 4.30.24
      8. America’s Military: The Spirit is Willing, but is the Flesh Too Weak…,” 4.23.24
      9. Make No Mistake: Israel is the Good Guy in the New Fight with Iran,” 4.14.24
      10. A Jihadist by Any Other Name is Still a Killer,” 4.1.24
      11. Murder Most Foul–But How Strange and Unnatural?” [on assassinations as policy], 2.18.24
      12. Who Really Wants Forever War in Ukraine…?,” 2.13.24
      13. What Game is Iran Playing?,” 1.22.24
      14. Seeing No Ecclesiastical Evil in Ukraine,” 11.2.23
      15. Israel’s Near and Far Enemies,” 11.17.23
      16. A Jihad on the Term ‘Islamism,'” 11.23.23
      17. Hamas, Iran’s Bloodthirsty Sock Puppet,” 10.9.23
      18. What Osama Wrought, 22 Years On,” 9.11.23
      19. Biden’s National Intelligence Strategy: Using Power to Shape Truth,” 8.16.23
      20. A Hungry Leviathan: Do We Really Want a More Poweful United Nations?,” 6.13.23
      21. The New Cold War: How to be In It to Win It,” 5.18.23
      22. Twenty Years after Invading Iraq–the Blind Still Lead in Washington,” 3.20.23
      23. Is Iran Bound by an Apocalypse Vow?,” 3.7.23
      24. Is ‘Ill News Always an Ill Guest?‘” [on Putin], 2.28.23
      25. Ukraine: Our Elites are Gaslighting Us to the Brink of Nuclear War,” 2.13.23
      26. Spy or Trial Balloons? China Draws on History to Test the West,” 2.6.23
      27. Ukraine: Fault Line or Potential Nuclear Conflict?,” 2.1.23
      28. A Tale of Two National Security Strategies” [Trump v. Biden], 11.2.22
      29. ‘Talkin’ World War II Blues’–Then and Now” [Ukraine v. Cuban Missile Crisis], 10.14.22
      30. The False Shadow of Domestic Extremism,” 9.14.22
      31. “The Armenian Genocide: Not the Only Legacy of the Ottoman Empire,” 5.2.22
      32. Our Government: Gone to the Dogs?” [on the “white supremacy terrorism” myth], 4.11.22
      33. Why the Spying King’s Eyes were Fixed on Trump” [on weaponizing the IC internally], 2.28.22
      34. The Spies Who Hate Us” [also on weaponizing the IC internally], 2.25.22
      35. Is Russia Playing Chess or Poker?,” 2.11.22
      36. We Didn’t Start Islam’s Fire. But Can We Put It Out?,” 2.6.22
      37. A Tin-Plated Dictator? Yes, but a Smart One We Can Do Business With,” 1.26.22
      38. Gaslighting the Gullible: The Latest Biden Administration Counter-terrorism Plan,” 1.18.22
      39. Sgt. Pepper and the Fall of the Soviet Union,” 12.27.21
      40. 9 A.D. and 9/11,” 9.10.21
      41. The Last State of Afghanistan: Worse than the First,” 8.30.21
      42. From Kabul to Kitchener,” 8.20.21
      43. From Khartoum to Kabul,” 8.16.21
      44. A Guide for the Misled–on Islam,” 7.11.21
      45. Biden’s New Counter-terrorism Strategy: A Lying, Dog-faced, Pony Soldier of a Document,” 6.30.21
      46. Iran’s New President: The Mahdi’s Mini-Me,” 6.24.21
      47. White Supremacists Our Most Dangerous Threat? A Whiter Shade of Tall Tale,” 5.4.21
      48. The Boulder Blunder: Ignorant Real Terror Sources to Chase Phantom Threats,” 3.25.21
      49. Goodbye to Trump’s Results-Oriented Middle East Policies,” 2.11.21
      50. The Daft Bigotry of Woke Expectations about Islam,” 1.26.21
      51. 9/11: 19 Years On,” 9.11.20
      52. From Eastern Arabia with Love: the UAE Makes Peace with Israel,” 8.19.20
      53. Mumbling toward Mecca,” 7.21.20.
      54. Who Can Blame Erdoğan for Going Back to the Future?,” 7.14.20
      55. How Middle-earth Can Help Us Deal with the Middle Kingdom,” 5.24.20
      56. Let’s Leave the Afghan Desert and Just Call It Peace,” 3.2.20
      57. Hotels v. Missiles: the Palestinians Chose…Poorly,” 2.7.20
      58. Radicalized by the Quran? A Former ISIS Wife Shares Her Story,” 1.11.20
      59. After al-Baghdadi,” 10.30.19
      60. Trump’s Kurdish Policy: Sympathy for the (Turkish) Devil?,” 10.14.19
      61. White Terrorists v. the Sultans of Slaughter,” 8.13.19
      62. Do Iran’s Leaders Want to Hotwire the Apocalypse?,” 7.8.19
      63. Contain Iran, Don’t Invade It,” 6.7.19
      64. Trump’s Policies toward the Islamic World are a Triumph,” 5.4.19
      65. ISIS is Not a Dead Parrot,” 4.8.19
      66. Mohammed’s Koran: the Book Amazon Won’t Let You Buy,” 3.20.29

      Another Mahdi in Sudan?!

      While the world has been focused on conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, a bloody civil war has been raging in Sudan for the last year–one that has killed over 14,000 Sudanese and displaced millions. The government (such as it is), headed by Army general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is fighting against its former proxy, the “Rapid Support Forces” (Quwwat al-Da`m al-Sari`), led by Muhammad Hamdan Dagalu. The RSF, formed some years ago from provincial nomads, previously helped Khartoum against rebels and separatists. But last year its members decided to take over the country, and in fact control large sections of Sudan–to include the capital. Egypt and Iran (?) are said to be backing al-Burhan and the army, while the UAE is supporting Dagalu’s RSF. As too, allegedly, is Russia–which wants access to Sudanese gold to help offset Western sanctions.

      The RSF logo, with its name on top and, below, the words “Equipped. Swift. Decisive.” Interestingly, this logo no longer has the word “Quds,” “Jerusalem, which the former one sported. (“Emblem of the Rapid Support Forces,” Wikipedia, Public Domain.)

      But what’s a Sudanese Muslim conflict without some reference to the Mahdi? According to an expert at Omdurman Islamic University, Professor Ahmad Sabah al-Khayr, some of the supporters of the RSF view Muhammad Hamdan Dagalu as the Awaited Mahdi, “seeking to place him at the top of the pyramid of the Islamic Caliphate.” The professor also blamed “international intelligence services for the spread of [such] extremist movements” in Africa. Of course.

      The Mahdi, for those who might not know, is Islam’s primary eschatological figure who will be sent by Allah to conquer the whole world. While more institutionalized in Shi`i Islam, the belief also exists in the larger Sunni world–thanks to a considerable number of hadiths (sayings of Muhammad) which predict his coming. And Sudan was the site of one of the most successful Mahdist movements in history: that of Muhammad Ahmad, who declared himself the Mahdi in 1880 and went on to lead a movement that conquered Sudan before his death in 1885. And which lasted until 1898, when it was destroyed by the British Army.

      I do track modern Mahdist irruptions on this site, whenever they occur (see the archives). Sunni Mahdism shows up most often today as the domain of one-off madmen. But sometimes such transform into actual movements. The aforementioned Muhammad Ahmad. And, more recently, that of Juhayman al-Utaybi and his (puppet?) Mahdi, Muhammad al-Qahtani, in 1979 Saudi Arabia. (For more on eschatological rebellions, especially against the Ottoman Empire, see my 2020 book: The COIN of the Islamic Realm: Insurgencies and the Ottoman Empire, 1416-1916.)

      Bottom line: while Mahdism has, historically, been prevalent in African Islam, that’s not the ONLY place it occurs; and while it’s often used as a populist-religious means of bolstering a leader’s legitimacy, it also can become a fervent belief. And that’s when Mahdism becomes quite dangerous.

      “Muhammad Ahmad.” If only modern wanna-be Mahdis were so striking and dapper. (From “Muhammad Ahmad,” Wikipedia, Public Domain.)